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Machine Learning 2. Lecture 4. Attention Models and Transformers

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Sequence-to-sequence problems: the recurrent network, the encoder–decoder architecture and its limitations; the recurrent network with an attention model, interpreting the attention matrix in machine translation and image captioning; similarity functions, the query–key–value attention model, the attention formula, self-attention; multi-head attention and its regularisation, hierarchical attention for document classification, the graph attention model GAT; the transformer for machine translation: the encoder, positional encoding, layer normalisation and skip connections, the decoder with masking, the training criterion, BLEU and WER; the transformer encoder BERT, the MLM and NSP criteria, fine-tuning, BPE and WordPiece tokenisation, model sizes.
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450

Machine Learning 2. Lecture 5. Topic Modelling

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Probabilistic topic modelling of text document collections: the bag-of-words and conditional independence hypotheses, the maximum likelihood criterion, three interpretations of the problem (soft clustering, stochastic matrix factorisation, autoencoder); the lemma on maximising a function on unit simplices; the ill-posedness of the problem and the additive regularisation of topic models ARTM, the EM algorithm and its interpretation; PLSA and LDA, the Dirichlet distribution, the maximum a posteriori probability and giving up Bayesian inference; smoothing, sparsing, background topics, decorrelation; multimodal and multilingual models, unigrams and bigrams; regularisers for classification and regression on texts, for word co-occurrence in short texts, for links between documents and for topic hierarchies.
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130

Machine Learning 2. Lecture 3. Vector Representations of Texts and Graphs

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Vector representations (embeddings) of texts and graphs: the distributional semantics hypothesis, syntagmatic and paradigmatic similarity of words, the CBOW and Skip-gram models of the word2vec program, hierarchical SoftMax on a Huffman tree, negative sampling (SGNS) and the connection of word2vec with the matrix factorisation of the PMI matrix, semantic analogies of words, the FastText model on character n-grams; texts as graphs; multidimensional scaling and the stress criterion, stochastic neighbour embedding SNE, perplexity, t-SNE; matrix factorisations of graphs, the random-walk models DeepWalk and node2vec; graph embedding methods as autoencoders, the generalised GraphEDM model, graph neural networks and message passing.
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250

Machine Learning 2. Lecture 11. Active Learning

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Active learning: the model itself chooses which objects to give the teacher for labelling. The problem setting, why active learning is faster than passive learning, learning curves; pool-based sampling, query synthesis and stream-based selective sampling, cost-sensitive methods; uncertainty sampling (least confidence, minimum margin, maximum entropy), query by committee, version space reduction, expected model change, expected error reduction; query synthesis by the Nelder–Mead method and by the variance reduction criterion; density weighting; exploratory actions, the ε-active and EG-active algorithms with the exponentiated gradient; active learning in crowdsourcing: reconciling annotators' labels, models of their reliability and of object difficulty, assigning tasks to annotators.
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450

Machine Learning 1. Lecture 10. Linear Ensembles

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Ensembles of models: base algorithms, the space of estimates, the decision rule and correcting functions; the problem of diversity of base algorithms; bagging, the random subspace method and a common pseudocode of stochastic ensembling; the unbiased out-of-bag estimate and estimating feature importance; converting simple voting into weighted voting; the random forest; boosting for binary classification with abstentions, the exponential approximation of the threshold loss function, the main theorem of AdaBoost with proof, convergence, classical AdaBoost and heuristics; why boosting does not overfit: experiments, bounding the probability of error through margins, the distribution of margins, comparison with bagging; the ComBoost algorithm.
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160

Machine Learning. Additional Lecture 2. A Survey of Optimisation Problems in Machine Learning

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

A survey lecture: machine learning as formulations of optimisation problems, a model, a loss function, a regulariser. Regression and classification, continuous approximations of the threshold loss function, SVM and logistic regression, quantile, robust and SVM regression; the L0, L1, L2, Elastic Net, SFM, RFM regularisers and feature selection; learning to rank: ordinal regression, the pairwise approach and AUC, LambdaRank; estimating a density and a mixture of distributions, clustering as a special case of a mixture, the one-class SVM; semi-supervised learning, the transductive SVM, PU-learning; matrix factorisations, autoencoders, multidimensional scaling, graph factorisations, GraphEDM; transfer learning, multi-task and self-supervised learning, distillation, learning using privileged information, generative adversarial networks; a typology of machine learning problems.
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210

Machine Learning 2. Lecture 10. Reinforcement Learning

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Reinforcement learning as learning from the environment's response: the multi-armed bandit problem, estimating the value of an action, the greedy and ε-greedy strategies, the exploration–exploitation trade-off, the UCB method, the exponential moving average, the pursuit method and reinforcement comparison; an environment with states, the Markov decision process, how it differs from ordinary machine learning problems, the discounted return, the state and action value functions, the Bellman equation, the SARSA and Q-learning methods, on-policy and off-policy; deep Q-learning DQN on the example of Atari games, experience replay; gradient optimisation of the policy (policy gradient) and its connection with log-likelihood maximisation; model-based and model-free approaches, a regression model of the reward with an upper confidence bound, LinUCB, recommending news articles, evaluating a policy on historical data.
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550

Machine Learning 1. Lecture 6. Linear Regression Models

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Multiple linear regression and least squares, the pseudoinverse and the geometric meaning of least squares; the solution through the singular value decomposition; multicollinearity and the condition number; ridge regression, choosing the regularization parameter and the effective dimension; LASSO and non-smooth regularizers for feature selection; principal component analysis as a low-rank matrix decomposition; the spectral method of least squares.
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130

Machine Learning 1. Lecture 1. Basic Concepts and Examples of Applied Problems

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Objects, features and answers; the types of supervised learning problems; parametric models and the learning method; loss functions and empirical risk minimization; the Runge example and overfitting; hold-out, leave-one-out and cross-validation; applied problems from medical diagnosis to sales forecasting; the CRISP-DM standard.
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210

Machine Learning 2. Adaptive Forecasting Methods

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Time series forecasting problems: the time series model, the forecasting horizon, the least squares method; econometrics as the main source of problems — trends, seasonalities, change points; examples of forecasting sales volumes and electricity prices; the linear autoregression model; a brief survey of forecasting methods; adaptive short-term forecasting methods: the exponential moving average and the smoothing parameter, the models of Holt, Theil–Wage, Winters with linear and exponential trend, adaptive autoregression; the tracking signal and a statistical test of model adequacy, the Trigg–Leach model; adaptive selection and adaptive composition of models, the LAVR method — local adaptation of weights with regularisation, the monotonicity constraint as a regulariser; experiments on the sales forecasting problem.
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140

Machine Learning 2. Lecture 9. Incremental and Online Learning

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Learning on a data stream: the formulation of the online learning problem, the learning curve, the issues: efficient model updates, making the model more complex as the sample grows, the equivalence of online and offline, storing the sample and catastrophic forgetting; how online learning differs from incremental learning, continual learning, anytime algorithms; lazy learning and online prototype selection; the online naive Bayes classifier with exponential distributions of features; the perceptron, Passive-Aggressive and online gradient descent; the recursive least squares method and the Sherman–Morrison formula; incremental training of decision trees ID5R; online training of an ensemble by the Hedge(β) algorithm and its financial interpretation; online deep learning and Hedge BackProp; incremental learning of new classes, iCaRL.
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200

Machine Learning 2. Lecture 12. Interpretability and Explainability

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Interpretability and explainability of machine learning models: goals, tasks and basic notions, who needs explanations and why; interpretable models; feature importance in linear regression: the t-statistic, net effects, contributions and situational importance; partial dependence plots (PDP) and individual conditional expectation plots (ICE); permutation feature importance; the Shapley value from cooperative game theory, its axioms and Monte Carlo estimation, its use in linear regression; surrogate modelling in the neighbourhood of an object, the LIME, Anchors, SHAP, Shapley Kernel and SAGE methods; the Shapley value for training objects, Data Shapley and Gradient Shapley; counterfactual explanations.
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230

Probability Theory. Lecture 1

2026LectureСтанислав Шапошников

The finite probability space and five properties of probability, a description of all probability measures on a finite set, equally likely outcomes and the choice of a model, classical paradoxes (two dice, the division of the stakes, Bertrand's paradox), conditional probability and the product rule, the law of total probability as a way to define a measure, Bayes' formula, independence of events.
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170

Machine Learning 1. Lecture 8. Feature Selection, Model Evaluation and Model Selection

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Measures of classification quality: type I and type II errors, the ROC curve and AUC, gradient maximization of AUC, log-loss, precision and recall, micro- and macro-averaging, the F-measure; internal and external criteria of generalization ability; hold-out, leave-one-out, q-fold and t×q-fold cross-validation, stratification; model consistency; regularization, AIC, BIC and the Vapnik–Chervonenkis bound; multi-criteria model selection; feature selection: full search, Add, Add-Del, depth-first search, beam search (GMDH), the genetic algorithm and random search with adaptation.
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150

Machine Learning 2. Lecture 7. Recommender Systems

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Collaborative filtering problems: transaction data, the clients–items matrix, filling in missing values and ranking recommendations, the Netflix Prize competition; user-based and item-based correlation methods, the Pearson, cosine and Jaccard similarity measures, Fisher's exact test; the sparse linear model SLIM; latent models and matrix factorisations: SVD, the alternating least squares method ALS, the latent factor model LFM and stochastic gradient, nonnegative matrix factorisations NNMF, PLSA; taking implicit preferences into account (implicit feedback); matrix factorisation as a linear autoencoder, neural network and denoising autoencoders; taking features of clients and items into account, factorisation machines libFM, a hypergraph topic model; the quality of recommendations: RMSE, precision@k, recall@k, diversity, novelty, coverage, serendipity, bias, offline and online evaluation.
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140

Machine Learning 1. Lecture 2. Stochastic Gradient and the Linear Classifier

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

The general scheme of supervised learning for regression, binary and multiclass classification; the margin and continuous approximations of the threshold loss; the linear classifier as a model of a neuron; the stochastic gradient method, momentum, Nesterov's accelerated gradient and heuristics; multicollinearity and L2 regularization; the maximum likelihood principle, its link to empirical risk minimization and the probabilistic meaning of regularization.
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130

Machine Learning 1. Lecture 15. A Short Review of the Semester

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

A closing review of the first semester: empirical risk minimisation and gradient methods; underfitting, overfitting, multicollinearity and regularisation; optimisation formulations of supervised learning (regression, classification, ranking) and unsupervised learning (density, mixtures, clustering, one-class classification, semi-supervised learning, PU-learning, principal component analysis, autoencoders); the six scientific schools of machine learning — symbolism, evolutionism, analogism, Bayesianism, connectionism, compositionism — and their Soviet roots; estimate-calculating algorithms; practice: CRISP-DM, data preprocessing, model evaluation and selection, loss analysis, A/B testing, meta-learning and AutoML.
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170

Machine Learning 2. Lecture 1. Deep Neural Networks

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Reminder: the neuron model, the multilayer network, stochastic gradient, momentum, vanishing and exploding gradients, ReLU, dropout, batch normalisation; depth matters more than width; feature generation and end-to-end learning; convolutional neural networks: convolution and pooling layers, the standard CNN scheme, AlexNet and ImageNet, residual networks ResNet and Highway Networks; convolutional networks for speech, texts and games; recurrent neural networks, training by BPTT, long short-term memory networks LSTM, the peephole variant, GRU.
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390

Machine Learning 1. Lecture 3. Neural Networks: Gradient Optimization Methods

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

The neuron as a linear model; implementing Boolean functions and the exclusive-OR problem; two-layer networks as universal approximators, Cybenko's theorem; the multilayer network and the backpropagation method; the adaptive gradient methods RMSProp, AdaDelta, Adam, Nadam; gradient explosion and gradient clipping; Dropout, ReLU activation functions, batch normalization, initialization and network pruning (Optimal Brain Damage).
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130

Machine Learning 1. Lecture 7. Generalizations of Linear Models

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Nonlinear regression: the Newton–Raphson and Gauss–Newton methods as a series of linear regressions; logistic regression and iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS); the generalized additive model and backfitting; the probabilistic meaning of least squares; the generalized linear model (GLM), the exponential family of distributions and the link function; logistic regression as a special case of GLM; the median, quantile regression and robust loss functions.
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130