Search results for “оценивание плотности”

Estimating a probability density from a sample: the maximum likelihood principle, the multivariate Gaussian density and its geometric meaning, multicollinearity and regularisation of the covariance matrix; separating a mixture of distributions, the EM algorithm as a method of simple iterations, the Gaussian mixture (GMM); the nonparametric Parzen–Rosenblatt estimate, the choice of kernel and window width; Bayesian classification theory: the generative and discriminative approaches, the optimal Bayes classifier, the Parzen window method, the quadratic discriminant, Fisher's linear discriminant, the radial basis function network and its training by the EM algorithm.

The probabilistic formulation of classification: prior and posterior class probabilities, class likelihood functions, the maximum a posteriori principle; the optimal Bayes classifier and losses from errors; empirical estimation of prior probabilities and class densities; the naive Bayes classifier, features with exponential-family densities and the linear naive Bayes classifier; a survey of Bayesian classifiers: the Parzen window method, the quadratic discriminant, Fisher's linear discriminant, Gaussian mixtures with diagonal covariance matrices, and the radial basis function network.

Interpretability and explainability of machine learning models: goals, tasks and basic notions, who needs explanations and why; interpretable models; feature importance in linear regression: the t-statistic, net effects, contributions and situational importance; partial dependence plots (PDP) and individual conditional expectation plots (ICE); permutation feature importance; the Shapley value from cooperative game theory, its axioms and Monte Carlo estimation, its use in linear regression; surrogate modelling in the neighbourhood of an object, the LIME, Anchors, SHAP, Shapley Kernel and SAGE methods; the Shapley value for training objects, Data Shapley and Gradient Shapley; counterfactual explanations.

Anomaly and novelty detection; heuristic anomaly scores: local density, isolation forest, a mixture with a background component, robust principal component analysis; outlier removal in nonparametric regression, the LOWESS algorithm; anomaly as the value of the loss function; the theory of robust learning: slowly growing functions, iterative reweighting of objects with IRS and IRLS, robust loss functions, the median, the quantile and the censored mean, robust aggregation functions and their smoothing, the IR-ERM algorithm; one-class SVM, learning from positive and unlabeled objects (PU-learning), problems with new and unknown classes.

A closing review of the first semester: empirical risk minimisation and gradient methods; underfitting, overfitting, multicollinearity and regularisation; optimisation formulations of supervised learning (regression, classification, ranking) and unsupervised learning (density, mixtures, clustering, one-class classification, semi-supervised learning, PU-learning, principal component analysis, autoencoders); the six scientific schools of machine learning — symbolism, evolutionism, analogism, Bayesianism, connectionism, compositionism — and their Soviet roots; estimate-calculating algorithms; practice: CRISP-DM, data preprocessing, model evaluation and selection, loss analysis, A/B testing, meta-learning and AutoML.

The problem of estimating generalization ability; the error matrix and the probability of overfitting; the case of a single algorithm and the hypergeometric distribution; the principle of uniform convergence of frequencies and Boole's inequality; the Vapnik–Chervonenkis bound, the growth function and the capacity of a family of algorithms; inverting the bound and the complexity penalty; structural risk minimization; the splitting and similarity effects; the Occam's razor bound and its link to regularization.

Measures of classification quality: type I and type II errors, the ROC curve and AUC, gradient maximization of AUC, log-loss, precision and recall, micro- and macro-averaging, the F-measure; internal and external criteria of generalization ability; hold-out, leave-one-out, q-fold and t×q-fold cross-validation, stratification; model consistency; regularization, AIC, BIC and the Vapnik–Chervonenkis bound; multi-criteria model selection; feature selection: full search, Add, Add-Del, depth-first search, beam search (GMDH), the genetic algorithm and random search with adaptation.

Ensembles of models: base algorithms, the space of estimates, the decision rule and correcting functions; the problem of diversity of base algorithms; bagging, the random subspace method and a common pseudocode of stochastic ensembling; the unbiased out-of-bag estimate and estimating feature importance; converting simple voting into weighted voting; the random forest; boosting for binary classification with abstentions, the exponential approximation of the threshold loss function, the main theorem of AdaBoost with proof, convergence, classical AdaBoost and heuristics; why boosting does not overfit: experiments, bounding the probability of error through margins, the distribution of margins, comparison with bagging; the ComBoost algorithm.

Reinforcement learning as learning from the environment's response: the multi-armed bandit problem, estimating the value of an action, the greedy and ε-greedy strategies, the exploration–exploitation trade-off, the UCB method, the exponential moving average, the pursuit method and reinforcement comparison; an environment with states, the Markov decision process, how it differs from ordinary machine learning problems, the discounted return, the state and action value functions, the Bellman equation, the SARSA and Q-learning methods, on-policy and off-policy; deep Q-learning DQN on the example of Atari games, experience replay; gradient optimisation of the policy (policy gradient) and its connection with log-likelihood maximisation; model-based and model-free approaches, a regression model of the reward with an upper confidence bound, LinUCB, recommending news articles, evaluating a policy on historical data.

Collaborative filtering problems: transaction data, the clients–items matrix, filling in missing values and ranking recommendations, the Netflix Prize competition; user-based and item-based correlation methods, the Pearson, cosine and Jaccard similarity measures, Fisher's exact test; the sparse linear model SLIM; latent models and matrix factorisations: SVD, the alternating least squares method ALS, the latent factor model LFM and stochastic gradient, nonnegative matrix factorisations NNMF, PLSA; taking implicit preferences into account (implicit feedback); matrix factorisation as a linear autoencoder, neural network and denoising autoencoders; taking features of clients and items into account, factorisation machines libFM, a hypergraph topic model; the quality of recommendations: RMSE, precision@k, recall@k, diversity, novelty, coverage, serendipity, bias, offline and online evaluation.

The learning-to-rank problem: recovering a partial order relation, the pointwise, pairwise and listwise approaches, the linear ranking model, applications; ordinal regression and the ordinal SVM (SVOR); the pairwise criterion, Ranking SVM, RankNet, the transition to the listwise method LambdaRank; ranking search results: query–document objects, assessor ratings, text, link and click features, TF-IDF and its probabilistic meaning, Okapi BM25, PageRank; quality criteria: precision and recall, MAP, the share of defective pairs and its link with AUC, DCG and NDCG, the pFound user behaviour model; the DSSM neural model: a siamese network, word hashing by letter trigrams, training on clicks with negative sampling.