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Machine Learning 2. Lecture 9. Incremental and Online Learning

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Learning on a data stream: the formulation of the online learning problem, the learning curve, the issues: efficient model updates, making the model more complex as the sample grows, the equivalence of online and offline, storing the sample and catastrophic forgetting; how online learning differs from incremental learning, continual learning, anytime algorithms; lazy learning and online prototype selection; the online naive Bayes classifier with exponential distributions of features; the perceptron, Passive-Aggressive and online gradient descent; the recursive least squares method and the Sherman–Morrison formula; incremental training of decision trees ID5R; online training of an ensemble by the Hedge(β) algorithm and its financial interpretation; online deep learning and Hedge BackProp; incremental learning of new classes, iCaRL.
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Machine Learning 2. Lecture 11. Active Learning

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Active learning: the model itself chooses which objects to give the teacher for labelling. The problem setting, why active learning is faster than passive learning, learning curves; pool-based sampling, query synthesis and stream-based selective sampling, cost-sensitive methods; uncertainty sampling (least confidence, minimum margin, maximum entropy), query by committee, version space reduction, expected model change, expected error reduction; query synthesis by the Nelder–Mead method and by the variance reduction criterion; density weighting; exploratory actions, the ε-active and EG-active algorithms with the exponentiated gradient; active learning in crowdsourcing: reconciling annotators' labels, models of their reliability and of object difficulty, assigning tasks to annotators.
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Machine Learning 2. Lecture 3. Vector Representations of Texts and Graphs

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Vector representations (embeddings) of texts and graphs: the distributional semantics hypothesis, syntagmatic and paradigmatic similarity of words, the CBOW and Skip-gram models of the word2vec program, hierarchical SoftMax on a Huffman tree, negative sampling (SGNS) and the connection of word2vec with the matrix factorisation of the PMI matrix, semantic analogies of words, the FastText model on character n-grams; texts as graphs; multidimensional scaling and the stress criterion, stochastic neighbour embedding SNE, perplexity, t-SNE; matrix factorisations of graphs, the random-walk models DeepWalk and node2vec; graph embedding methods as autoencoders, the generalised GraphEDM model, graph neural networks and message passing.
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Machine Learning 2. Lecture 8. Association Rule Mining

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Association rule mining as unsupervised learning: binary features, support and frequent itemsets, the association rule, minimum support MinSupp and minimum confidence MinConf; market basket analysis; the link between association rules and logical regularities; the anti-monotonicity of support; the APriori algorithm: breadth-first search for frequent itemsets and recursive extraction of rules; modifications: search on a random subsample, item hierarchies, incremental and decremental algorithms; the FP-growth algorithm: the prefix FP-tree, building it in one pass over the transaction database, computing the support of any itemset from the tree, the conditional FP-tree and recursive search for frequent itemsets; the speed of FP-growth compared with APriori.
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Machine Learning. Additional Lecture 1. The Theory of Overfitting

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

The combinatorial theory of overfitting: the probability of overfitting and why the Vapnik–Chervonenkis bounds are loose; experiments with overfitting — a monotone chain of algorithms, the effect of splitting and connectivity of the family on the probability of overfitting and on the complete cross-validation estimate, overfitting of chains, the exact formula for the probability of overfitting when choosing between two algorithms; the splitting–connectivity graph of a family of algorithms, examples for linear classifiers, a monotone chain and a two-dimensional net; generating and forbidden sets, upper connectivity and inferiority of an algorithm; the splitting–connectivity upper bound, the idea of its proof and its properties.
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Machine Learning 1. Lecture 11. Advanced Ensemble Methods

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Bias–variance analysis: the decomposition of the error into noise, bias and variance, the bias and variance of simple voting, why complex ensembles do not overfit; gradient boosting for an arbitrary loss function as a parametric approximation of a gradient step; stochastic gradient boosting; special cases: regression, AdaBoost, AnyBoost, variants of loss functions; XGBoost: the tree as a linear model, L0 and L2 regularisation, analytical leaf values and the splitting criterion; CatBoost: leakage in the gradients, ordered boosting on subsamples of doubling length, unbiased target statistics for categorical features.
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Machine Learning 2. Lecture 12. Interpretability and Explainability

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Interpretability and explainability of machine learning models: goals, tasks and basic notions, who needs explanations and why; interpretable models; feature importance in linear regression: the t-statistic, net effects, contributions and situational importance; partial dependence plots (PDP) and individual conditional expectation plots (ICE); permutation feature importance; the Shapley value from cooperative game theory, its axioms and Monte Carlo estimation, its use in linear regression; surrogate modelling in the neighbourhood of an object, the LIME, Anchors, SHAP, Shapley Kernel and SAGE methods; the Shapley value for training objects, Data Shapley and Gradient Shapley; counterfactual explanations.
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Machine Learning. Additional Lecture 2. A Survey of Optimisation Problems in Machine Learning

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

A survey lecture: machine learning as formulations of optimisation problems, a model, a loss function, a regulariser. Regression and classification, continuous approximations of the threshold loss function, SVM and logistic regression, quantile, robust and SVM regression; the L0, L1, L2, Elastic Net, SFM, RFM regularisers and feature selection; learning to rank: ordinal regression, the pairwise approach and AUC, LambdaRank; estimating a density and a mixture of distributions, clustering as a special case of a mixture, the one-class SVM; semi-supervised learning, the transductive SVM, PU-learning; matrix factorisations, autoencoders, multidimensional scaling, graph factorisations, GraphEDM; transfer learning, multi-task and self-supervised learning, distillation, learning using privileged information, generative adversarial networks; a typology of machine learning problems.
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Probability Theory. Lecture 1

2026LectureСтанислав Шапошников

The finite probability space and five properties of probability, a description of all probability measures on a finite set, equally likely outcomes and the choice of a model, classical paradoxes (two dice, the division of the stakes, Bertrand's paradox), conditional probability and the product rule, the law of total probability as a way to define a measure, Bayes' formula, independence of events.
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Станислав Валерьевич Шапошников — профессор кафедры математического анализа механико-математического факультета МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова (с 2014 года) и профессор факультета математики НИУ ВШЭ (с 2013 года). Доктор физико-математических наук. Окончил мехмат МГУ в 2006 году. Кандидатская диссертация «Эллиптические уравнения для мер» (2009); докторская — «Качественные свойства стационарных распределений и переходных вероятностей диффузионных процессов» (2011), защищена в 27 лет. Специалист по уравнениям Фоккера–Планка–Колмогорова. Разработал метод перенормировки решений и в соавторстве решил задачу А. Н. Колмогорова о единственности вероятностных решений уравнений Фоккера–Планка–Колмогорова; предложил новый подход к регулярности решений эллиптических уравнений в дважды дивергентной форме. Лауреат премии имени А. Н. Колмогорова РАН (2018) за цикл работ «Стационарные уравнения Колмогорова», премии Правительства Москвы молодым учёным (2017) и премии имени И. И. Шувалова (2012) за докторскую диссертацию. Читает курсы анализа и теории вероятностей в МГУ и НИУ ВШЭ; в Независимом московском университете осенью 2026 года читает «Математический анализ-1» и «Теорию вероятностей».

Machine Learning 1. Lecture 9. Logical Classification Methods

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

The interpretability of models; decision trees and the greedy ID3 algorithm; the axioms of impurity, the entropy and Gini criteria; handling missing values; the merits and drawbacks of the greedy strategy; tree pruning (post-pruning); CART regression trees and Minimal Cost-Complexity Pruning; rule induction: logical regularities, families of rules (conjunctions, syndromes, half-planes, balls), search metaheuristics, a tree as a covering set of conjunctions; the Pareto front in (p,n) space, logical and statistical regularities, Fisher's exact test, informativeness criteria; building a classifier from regularities.
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Machine Learning 2. Lecture 6. Learning to Rank

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

The learning-to-rank problem: recovering a partial order relation, the pointwise, pairwise and listwise approaches, the linear ranking model, applications; ordinal regression and the ordinal SVM (SVOR); the pairwise criterion, Ranking SVM, RankNet, the transition to the listwise method LambdaRank; ranking search results: query–document objects, assessor ratings, text, link and click features, TF-IDF and its probabilistic meaning, Okapi BM25, PageRank; quality criteria: precision and recall, MAP, the share of defective pairs and its link with AUC, DCG and NDCG, the pFound user behaviour model; the DSSM neural model: a siamese network, word hashing by letter trigrams, training on clicks with negative sampling.
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Machine Learning 1. Lecture 8. Feature Selection, Model Evaluation and Model Selection

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Measures of classification quality: type I and type II errors, the ROC curve and AUC, gradient maximization of AUC, log-loss, precision and recall, micro- and macro-averaging, the F-measure; internal and external criteria of generalization ability; hold-out, leave-one-out, q-fold and t×q-fold cross-validation, stratification; model consistency; regularization, AIC, BIC and the Vapnik–Chervonenkis bound; multi-criteria model selection; feature selection: full search, Add, Add-Del, depth-first search, beam search (GMDH), the genetic algorithm and random search with adaptation.
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Topology 2. Lecture 1

2026LectureФёдор Вылегжанин

Why homology is needed — the fundamental group as a functor, homotopy groups, bordism and its combinatorial approximation; chain complexes and their homology; abstract simplicial complexes, geometric realisation and triangulations; the complex of simplicial chains, the proof of d2=0d^2 = 0, the simplicial homology of a segment, of two points and of the boundary of a triangle; reduced homology.

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Константин Вячеславович Воронцов — профессор РАН, доктор физико-математических наук. Заведующий кафедрой «Математические методы прогнозирования» ВМК МГУ, где с 2021 года — профессор; заведующий лабораторией «Машинное обучение и семантический анализ» Института искусственного интеллекта МГУ (с 2022 года); заведующий кафедрой «Машинное обучение и цифровая гуманитаристика» МФТИ (с 2021 года); заведующий кафедрой «Интеллектуальные системы» МФТИ (с 2022 года), на которой работает с 2004 года; главный научный сотрудник отдела «Интеллектуальные системы» ВЦ ФИЦ ИУ РАН, где работает с 2001 года. Окончил МФТИ (1994) и аспирантуру ВЦ РАН (1997). Кандидатская диссертация «Локальные базисы в алгебраическом подходе к проблеме распознавания» (1999, специальность 01.01.09); докторская диссертация «Комбинаторная теория надёжности обучения по прецедентам» (2010, специальность 05.13.17). Автор комбинаторной теории надёжности обучения по прецедентам, оценивающей вероятность переобучения с учётом эффектов расслоения и сходства в семействах алгоритмов; основное направление его исследований — теория и методы аддитивной регуляризации тематических моделей (ARTM). С 2014 года — научный руководитель разработки библиотеки тематического моделирования с открытым кодом BigARTM, с 2019 года — поисково-рекомендательной системы SciSearch. Один из идеологов и администраторов ресурса MachineLearning.ru (с 2008 года). Медаль РАН с премией для молодых учёных (1999, совместно с Е. В. Нарыжным); почётное звание профессора РАН (2015); юбилейная медаль РАН «300 лет Российской академии наук» (2024); премия Yandex ML Prize в номинации «Зал славы» (2025). Автор курсов «Вероятностные тематические модели», «Математические методы анализа текстов», «Прикладной статистический анализ данных» и спецкурса по теории надёжности обучения по прецедентам; в 2008–2020 годах преподавал в Школе анализа данных Яндекса. С 2004 года читает годовой курс «Машинное обучение» в МФТИ и ВМК МГУ.