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16 results

Machine Learning 2. Adaptive Forecasting Methods

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Time series forecasting problems: the time series model, the forecasting horizon, the least squares method; econometrics as the main source of problems — trends, seasonalities, change points; examples of forecasting sales volumes and electricity prices; the linear autoregression model; a brief survey of forecasting methods; adaptive short-term forecasting methods: the exponential moving average and the smoothing parameter, the models of Holt, Theil–Wage, Winters with linear and exponential trend, adaptive autoregression; the tracking signal and a statistical test of model adequacy, the Trigg–Leach model; adaptive selection and adaptive composition of models, the LAVR method — local adaptation of weights with regularisation, the monotonicity constraint as a regulariser; experiments on the sales forecasting problem.
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140

Machine Learning 1. Lecture 10. Linear Ensembles

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Ensembles of models: base algorithms, the space of estimates, the decision rule and correcting functions; the problem of diversity of base algorithms; bagging, the random subspace method and a common pseudocode of stochastic ensembling; the unbiased out-of-bag estimate and estimating feature importance; converting simple voting into weighted voting; the random forest; boosting for binary classification with abstentions, the exponential approximation of the threshold loss function, the main theorem of AdaBoost with proof, convergence, classical AdaBoost and heuristics; why boosting does not overfit: experiments, bounding the probability of error through margins, the distribution of margins, comparison with bagging; the ComBoost algorithm.
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160

Machine Learning 1. Lecture 11. Advanced Ensemble Methods

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Bias–variance analysis: the decomposition of the error into noise, bias and variance, the bias and variance of simple voting, why complex ensembles do not overfit; gradient boosting for an arbitrary loss function as a parametric approximation of a gradient step; stochastic gradient boosting; special cases: regression, AdaBoost, AnyBoost, variants of loss functions; XGBoost: the tree as a linear model, L0 and L2 regularisation, analytical leaf values and the splitting criterion; CatBoost: leakage in the gradients, ordered boosting on subsamples of doubling length, unbiased target statistics for categorical features.
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190

Topology 2. Lecture 2

2026LectureФёдор Вылегжанин

Where simplicial homology shows up in real life — topological data analysis. The union of balls around a point cloud, persistence modules and their decomposition into a sum of interval modules over a field (the structure theorem and the algorithm), the barcode; the Vietoris–Rips and Čech complexes; the stability theorem for barcodes, the Hausdorff, Gromov–Hausdorff and Wasserstein distances; open covers and their nerves, Leray covers and the nerve theorem, the category of covers, paracompactness, Lebesgue covering dimension, Čech homology and cohomology.
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520

Machine Learning 1. Bayesian Classification Theory

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

The probabilistic formulation of classification: prior and posterior class probabilities, class likelihood functions, the maximum a posteriori principle; the optimal Bayes classifier and losses from errors; empirical estimation of prior probabilities and class densities; the naive Bayes classifier, features with exponential-family densities and the linear naive Bayes classifier; a survey of Bayesian classifiers: the Parzen window method, the quadratic discriminant, Fisher's linear discriminant, Gaussian mixtures with diagonal covariance matrices, and the radial basis function network.
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180

Geometry. Lecture 1

2026LectureФёдор Попеленский

What geometries there are and what they have in common — Klein's Erlangen programme; the school 3–4–5 triangle and the ellipsoid; the cube and the brick as finite geometries; metric spaces; groups, quantifiers in the axioms; the group of bijections and the order of composition; left and right actions of a group on a set; the metrics d1d_1, d2d_2, d∞d_\infty on Rn\mathbb{R}^n; isometries, subgroups; the order of an element; orbits, stabilisers, transitive actions; the list of geometries in the course — the Euclidean plane, the regular triangle and S3S_3, the cube and its 48 symmetries, the Poincaré model of the Lobachevsky plane; fundamental domains; subgeometries — the square in the cube.

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330

Algebra 1. Lecture 1

2026LectureАртём Авилов

What algebra studies — algebraic structures. Groups (definition, examples, additive notation, uniqueness of the identity and of inverses), rings (variants of the axioms, rings with and without identity), fields and division rings, vector spaces and modules, algebras over a field. The symmetric group SnS_n — permutations, non-commutativity, two-row notation, cycles and transpositions, decomposition into transpositions, disjoint permutations commute, decomposition into disjoint cycles and its uniqueness, powers, inversions, parity and the sign of a permutation, multiplying by a transposition changes the sign.

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310

Topology 2. Lecture 1

2026LectureФёдор Вылегжанин

Why homology is needed — the fundamental group as a functor, homotopy groups, bordism and its combinatorial approximation; chain complexes and their homology; abstract simplicial complexes, geometric realisation and triangulations; the complex of simplicial chains, the proof of d2=0d^2 = 0, the simplicial homology of a segment, of two points and of the boundary of a triangle; reduced homology.

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470

Mathematical Analysis 1. Lecture 1

2026LectureСтанислав Шапошников

Naive set theory and Russell's paradox, Kuratowski's ordered pair and the Cartesian product, a function as a subset of a product, composition, injections, surjections and bijections, the group of bijections and the embedding of any group into it, equinumerosity and indicator functions, the Cantor–Bernstein and Cantor theorems.
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290

Алгебра 1. Лекция 4. Формальные степенные ряды и производящие функции

2026LectureAlexey Ilyin

В этой лекции рассматриваются формальные степенные ряды как алгебраический объект. Вводятся операции сложения, умножения, а также аналоги производной и интеграла. Ключевая идея лекции — применение этого аппарата для решения линейно-рекуррентных соотношений с помощью производящих функций, что демонстрируется на классическом примере чисел Фибоначчи.
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240

Topology 2. Lecture 3

2026LectureФёдор Вылегжанин

Singular homology — standard simplices and the inclusions of facets, singular simplices and chains, the differential; zeroth homology and path components, the homology of a point, reduced homology; chain maps and maps of homology, functoriality, the chain map induced by a continuous map; chain homotopies and the prism; the homotopy invariance theorem with a full proof via the prism operator; subcomplexes, quotient complexes and the homology of a pair.
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550