Search results for “SAGE”

Interpretability and explainability of machine learning models: goals, tasks and basic notions, who needs explanations and why; interpretable models; feature importance in linear regression: the t-statistic, net effects, contributions and situational importance; partial dependence plots (PDP) and individual conditional expectation plots (ICE); permutation feature importance; the Shapley value from cooperative game theory, its axioms and Monte Carlo estimation, its use in linear regression; surrogate modelling in the neighbourhood of an object, the LIME, Anchors, SHAP, Shapley Kernel and SAGE methods; the Shapley value for training objects, Data Shapley and Gradient Shapley; counterfactual explanations.

Vector representations (embeddings) of texts and graphs: the distributional semantics hypothesis, syntagmatic and paradigmatic similarity of words, the CBOW and Skip-gram models of the word2vec program, hierarchical SoftMax on a Huffman tree, negative sampling (SGNS) and the connection of word2vec with the matrix factorisation of the PMI matrix, semantic analogies of words, the FastText model on character n-grams; texts as graphs; multidimensional scaling and the stress criterion, stochastic neighbour embedding SNE, perplexity, t-SNE; matrix factorisations of graphs, the random-walk models DeepWalk and node2vec; graph embedding methods as autoencoders, the generalised GraphEDM model, graph neural networks and message passing.

Time series forecasting problems: the time series model, the forecasting horizon, the least squares method; econometrics as the main source of problems — trends, seasonalities, change points; examples of forecasting sales volumes and electricity prices; the linear autoregression model; a brief survey of forecasting methods; adaptive short-term forecasting methods: the exponential moving average and the smoothing parameter, the models of Holt, Theil–Wage, Winters with linear and exponential trend, adaptive autoregression; the tracking signal and a statistical test of model adequacy, the Trigg–Leach model; adaptive selection and adaptive composition of models, the LAVR method — local adaptation of weights with regularisation, the monotonicity constraint as a regulariser; experiments on the sales forecasting problem.