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Machine Learning 2. Lecture 9. Incremental and Online Learning

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Learning on a data stream: the formulation of the online learning problem, the learning curve, the issues: efficient model updates, making the model more complex as the sample grows, the equivalence of online and offline, storing the sample and catastrophic forgetting; how online learning differs from incremental learning, continual learning, anytime algorithms; lazy learning and online prototype selection; the online naive Bayes classifier with exponential distributions of features; the perceptron, Passive-Aggressive and online gradient descent; the recursive least squares method and the Sherman–Morrison formula; incremental training of decision trees ID5R; online training of an ensemble by the Hedge(β) algorithm and its financial interpretation; online deep learning and Hedge BackProp; incremental learning of new classes, iCaRL.
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Machine Learning 2. Adaptive Forecasting Methods

2026LectureКонстантин Вячеславович Воронцов

Time series forecasting problems: the time series model, the forecasting horizon, the least squares method; econometrics as the main source of problems — trends, seasonalities, change points; examples of forecasting sales volumes and electricity prices; the linear autoregression model; a brief survey of forecasting methods; adaptive short-term forecasting methods: the exponential moving average and the smoothing parameter, the models of Holt, Theil–Wage, Winters with linear and exponential trend, adaptive autoregression; the tracking signal and a statistical test of model adequacy, the Trigg–Leach model; adaptive selection and adaptive composition of models, the LAVR method — local adaptation of weights with regularisation, the monotonicity constraint as a regulariser; experiments on the sales forecasting problem.
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